![]() There looks to be some improvement into Wednesday but a shift back to southerly wind flow on the back side of the high pressure will likely bring back heavy surface smoke for at least the western parts of the CWA with lesser concerns for the easternmost parts of the CWA. There is an Air Quality Alert (issued by DNR) in effect for all of the CWA for smoke through part of Thursday and particularly today looks to be the worst part of that period with unhealthy air quality conditions. This will be an unusually high concentration of smoke at the surface for this area. Latest models show heavy doses of surface smoke (from Canada)įrom now through at least the early afternoon for most of southern WI. Today would normally be looked at as a beautiful day to go outside and enjoy the day as high pressure moving overhead and modest north winds by the afternoon, however smoke is a major concern today with visibilities likely becoming at least mildly impacted. SPC has a Marginal Risk for severe storms for this period, and will continue to monitor this potential. There is a good amount of mean layer CAPE and deep layer bulk shear available, with little to no CIN, so some strong to severe storms could occur with enough forcing with the front. There are hints of a 500 mb vorticity maximum shifting east through the region during this period. There is some potential for strong to severe storms on Thursday afternoon and evening, as a modest frontal boundary shifts southeast through the area. Will watch the updating HRRR and other models to see if this trend catches on. A decent amount of elevated CAPE and deep layer bulk shear is there, so it may have some hail potential. The southerly low level jet would help feed this activity, with it being elevated. Several CAMs are suggesting showers and storms may develop later Wednesday afternoon and evening in far west central Wisconsin and shift to the southeast overnight into early Thursday morning. Models and CAMs have some weakening showers moving toward the western counties during this time, but dry air may win out and dissipate any showers. North winds should gradually weaken this afternoon and shift to the east tonight and southeast on Wednesday, as the high shifts to the east of the area.Ī 500 mb vorticity maximum should push east into the area into Wednesday morning. The smoke may limit solar radiation and temperatures this afternoon as well, so may have to reduce highs a bit. Per the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, the Air Quality Advisory remains in effect until noon CDT Thursday for all of Wisconsin. Smoke should still linger into Thursday morning, though it should not be quite as concentrated and reducing visibility as it is today. This more concentrated smoke is likely to push back northward into western portions of the area, and Wisconsin, later tonight into Wednesday, per HRRR and RAP Smoke models for near-surface smoke. The more concentrated smoke, with 1 to 4 mile visibility restrictions, will continue to affect the area this afternoon, before gradually trying to shift to the south of the area tonight. ![]() Area Forecast Discussion.UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1049 AM CDT Tue Jun 27 2023
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